Objective: To analyze the trend of stroke incidence in Chinese and Indian residents from 1990 to 2019, and to predict the change of stroke incidence in the two countries by 2042, and to explore the influence of age, period, birth cohort and other factors on the incidence of stroke in the two countries, so as to provide scientific reference for control measures. Methods: Based on the data of the Global Burden of Disease 2019 (GBD2019), the Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the incidence trend, the age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to study the influence of different factors, and the Bayesian model was used to predict the future trend. Results: From 1990 to 2019, the overall incidence of stroke in China and India showed a downward trend. The Joinpoint regression model showed that the incidence rate decreased by 0.35% per year on average in China (AAPC=-0.35%, P＜0.001) and 0.32% per year in India (AAPC=-0.32%, P＜0.001). The APC model showed that the risk of stroke increased with age and period, and decreased with birth cohort. It was expected that by 2042, the incidence of stroke in China would continue to decline, while India would show an upward trend. Conclusion: The risk of stroke is significantly affected by population aging. Although the overall trend is declining, stroke is still an important public health problem in both countries.
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