Construction of a nomogram prediction model for ischaemic stroke based on routine blood test and carotid plaque

WANG Yisong; ZHAO Feng; ZHANG Hongzhen

doi:10.16833/j.cnki.jbmc.2024.03.003

Journal of Baotou Medical College >

2024 , Vol. 40 >Issue 3: 9 - 15

DOI: https://doi.org/10.16833/j.cnki.jbmc.2024.03.003

Construction of a nomogram prediction model for ischaemic stroke based on routine blood test and carotid plaque

WANG Yisong ,
ZHAO Feng ,
ZHANG Hongzhen

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1. Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China;
2. The First Affiliated Hospital of Anhui University of Science and Technology, Huainan 232001, China

Received date: 2023-12-13

Online published: 2024-03-22

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Abstract

Objective: To predict the risk of cerebral ischemic stroke (CIS) in patients with carotid atherosclerosis (CAS) by constructing a personalized nomogram prediction model based on routine blood tests and carotid plaque. Methods: A total of 240 CAS patients who were admitted to the Department of Neurology of Shanghai Eighth People's Hospital from March 1, 2021 to March 1, 2022 were selected, and the basic characteristics, routine blood indicators and imaging data were collected. The patients were divided into two groups according to whether they had ischemic stroke or not, and all data were randomly selected and split into the modeling and validation group in the ratio of 7:3. The model was internally validated using the area under the ROC curve (AUC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA). Results: One-way logistic regression and lasso regression analyses showed that red cell distribution width (RDW), platelet-large cell ratio (P-LCR) and platelet count were independent predictors of ischaemic stroke in patients with CAS (P＜0.05), and age was eventually included in the model due to its clinical significance for CIS. A nomogram prediction model was constructed based on the above predictors imported into R software and the model was validated internally. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test (P=0.058) indicated that the model had good discrimination. DCA results showed that using the model at risk thresholds of 8% to 45% was of good clinical practice. Conclusion: A nomogram prediction model for ischaemic stroke in CAS patients was constructed and validated in this study, which confirmed that the model had good predictive and discriminatory ability, and it is of high clinical utility in the clinical assessment of ischaemic stroke in CAS patients.

Key words： Routine blood test; Carotid artery plaque; Carotid atherosclerosis; Ischemic stroke; Nomogram model; Risk prediction

Cite this article

WANG Yisong , ZHAO Feng , ZHANG Hongzhen . Construction of a nomogram prediction model for ischaemic stroke based on routine blood test and carotid plaque[J]. Journal of Baotou Medical College, 2024 , 40(3) : 9 -15 . DOI: 10.16833/j.cnki.jbmc.2024.03.003

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