目的: 了解包头市1～3岁幼儿龋病的影响因素,构建预测模型,以识别高风险幼儿群体,为制定针对性龋病预防干预策略提供依据,降低幼儿龋病发病率。方法: 2021年12月至2023年11月间,随机抽取18所幼儿园中小托班的1～3岁幼儿。对观察对象进行口腔检查,检查存在釉质发育缺陷的乳牙数量。开展问卷调查,内容由一般人口学信息及其相关因素两方面构成。筛选幼儿龋病的相关因素,建立预测模型,评价模型的区分度和校准能力。结果: 含奶瓶或乳头入睡、进食甜点心及糖果、釉质发育缺陷、开始刷牙年龄晚是包头市1～3岁幼儿龋病的危险因素;高频帮助幼儿刷牙、定期口腔检查、家长学历高、孕期钙剂补充是包头市1～3岁幼儿龋病的保护因素(P＜0.05);建立了包头市1~3岁幼儿龋病预测模型,ROC曲线分析结果显示模型AUC为0.919,灵敏度为75.7%,特异度为70.9%,预测模型具有较高的校准能力。结论: 包头市1～3岁幼儿龋病可能与家长学历、孕期钙剂补充、开始刷牙年龄等多种因素有关,龋病预测模型可为该地区幼儿龋病管理提供参考工具。
Objective: To understand the influencing factors of dental caries in children aged 1-3 years in Baotou City, and to construct a prediction model to identify high-risk groups of children, so as to provide a basis for the development of targeted caries prevention and intervention strategies, and reduce the incidence of dental caries in children. Methods: From December 2021 to November 2023, children aged 1-3 years from 18 Junior classes of kindergarten were randomly selected as observation objects. All children underwent oral examinations and the number of deciduous teeth with enamel development defects was counted. In addition, a questionnaire survey was conducted, which was composed of general demographic information and related factors. The related factors of children's dental caries were screened, the prediction model was established, and the discrimination and calibration ability of the model were evaluated. Results: Sleeping with bottles or nipples, eating desserts and candy, enamel development defects, and late age of starting brushing were risk factors for dental caries in children aged 1-3 years in Baotou city; high frequency of helping children brush their teeth, regular oral examination, high education of parents and calcium supplementation during pregnancy were the protective factors of dental caries in children aged 1-3 years in Baotou (P＜0.05). The prediction model of dental caries in children aged 1-3 years in Baotou was established, the ROC curve analysis showed that the AUC of the model was 0.919, the sensitivity was 75.7%, and the specificity was 70.9%. The prediction model had high calibration ability. Conclusion: The dental caries of children aged 1-3 years in Baotou City may be related to many factors, such as parents' educational background, calcium supplementation during pregnancy, and age of starting to brush teeth. The dental caries prediction model can provide a reference tool for the management of caries in children in this area.
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