基于GM(1,1)模型的安徽省中医类医院卫生资源与服务需求预测分析*

doi:10.16833/j.cnki.jbmc.2022.12.016

包头医学院学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 81-85.doi: 10.16833/j.cnki.jbmc.2022.12.016

基于GM(1,1)模型的安徽省中医类医院卫生资源与服务需求预测分析^*

荆巧玉, 邰蕾蕾

安徽中医药大学医药经济管理学院,安徽合肥 230012

收稿日期:2022-07-21 出版日期:2022-12-25 发布日期:2023-01-06
通讯作者: 邰蕾蕾
基金资助:
*2020年安徽高校人文社会科学研究重点项目(SK2020A0242),安徽省社会科学创新发展研究课题(2020CX137)

Prediction and analysis of health resources and service demand of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in Anhui Province based on GM (1,1) model

JING Qiaoyu, TAI Leilei

School of Medicine Economy Management,Anhui University of Chinese Medicine,Hefei 230012,China

Received:2022-07-21 Online:2022-12-25 Published:2023-01-06

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的: 分析预测安徽省中医类医院卫生资源与服务变化情况,以期为政府及相关部门提供决策参考。方法: 基于2012-2020年安徽省中医类医院相关数据,通过GM( 1,1) 模型预测分析“十四五”期间安徽省中医类医院卫生资源及服务需求。结果: 2021-2025年安徽省中医类医院卫生资源和服务需求总体呈增长趋势,中医类医院机构数、床位数、卫生技术人员数、中医执业(助理)医师、出院人数、年诊疗人次年均增长率分别为6.95 %、7.77 %、8.45 %、7.97 %、7.33 %、7.18 %。结论: 中医类医院卫生物力资源、人力资源配置水平进一步提升,但是中医执业(助理)医师仍短缺、卫生资源的投入与产出处于相对失衡状态。建议政府发挥政策导向作用,健全人才培养机制,统筹协调中医药投入产出均衡发展,满足人民多层次的健康需求。

关键词: 中医类医院, GM(1,1)模型, 卫生资源配置, 安徽省

Abstract: Objective: To analyze and predict the changes of health resources and services in traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in Anhui Province, in order to provide decision-making reference for the government and relevant departments. Methods: Based on the data of Anhui Traditional Chinese medicine hospitals from 2012 to 2020, the health resources and service demand of Anhui Traditional Chinese medicine hospitals during the "fourteenth five year plan" period were predicted and analyzed by GM (1,1) model. Results: From 2021 to 2025, the health resources and service demand of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in Anhui Province showed an overall growth trend. The average annual growth rates of the number of institutions, beds, health technicians, practicing (Assistant) doctors of traditional Chinese medicine, number of discharged patients and annual diagnosis and treatment personnel of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in the next year were 5.53 %, 6.17 %, 6.70 %, 6.33 %, 5.82 % and 5.70 % respectively. Conclusion: The allocation level of health material resources and human resources in traditional Chinese medicine hospitals has been further improved, but the practicing (Assistant) doctors of traditional Chinese medicine are still in shortage, and the input and output of health resources are in a relatively unbalanced state. It is suggested that the government should play a policy oriented role, improve the talent training mechanism, coordinate the balanced development of input and output of traditional Chinese medicine, and meet the people's multi-level health needs.

Key words: Chinese medicine class hospitals, GM(1, 1) model, health resource allocation, Anhui Province

荆巧玉, 邰蕾蕾. 基于GM(1,1)模型的安徽省中医类医院卫生资源与服务需求预测分析^*[J]. 包头医学院学报, 2022, 38(12): 81-85.

JING Qiaoyu, TAI Leilei. Prediction and analysis of health resources and service demand of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in Anhui Province based on GM (1,1) model[J]. Journal of Baotou Medical College, 2022, 38(12): 81-85.

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基于GM(1,1)模型的安徽省中医类医院卫生资源与服务需求预测分析^*

Prediction and analysis of health resources and service demand of traditional Chinese medicine hospitals in Anhui Province based on GM (1,1) model

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